Of the 15 games on Friday’s Major League Baseball slate, 13 of them are series openers, and there are several juicy matchups on hand. Arguably the best rivalry in the sport has its seventh game of the season as the Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees. Elsewhere, we have a rematch of the 2017 World Series as the Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Dodgers. But arguably the game of the day is the series opener between two of the five teams in the majors that have 60-plus wins, as the Cleveland Guardians visit the Philadelphia Phillies.
On tap for tonight we have three underdog moneyline plays, so let’s dive into my top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds (-116) at Tampa Bay Rays (-102) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
The Tampa Bay Rays have dominated left-handed starting pitchers this season, as their 17-9 record against southpaws is the third-best in the majors behind only the Dodgers and Guardians. Tampa Bay typically stacks a lineup full of right-handed batters when facing a lefty, and it ranks seventh in batting average and wRC+, and 11th in on-base percentage and slugging against left-handed pitchers. Those rankings drop to 21st or worse in all of those categories against right-handed pitching, including having the second-worst slugging percentage in the majors.
Thus, we expect the Rays to perform well offensively with the Reds sending Nick Lodolo to the mound. Lodolo ranks in the bottom half of the league in barrels and his walk rate is up 16.7% from last season. He has allowed four runs in three of his last four starts, and if he does so again, that should be more than enough run support for Shane Baz, who is making just his fourth start this season, but who pitched to a 1.74 home ERA in his last full season (2022).
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-102)
Texas Rangers (+100) at Toronto Blue Jays (-118) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-118)
We take aim at another southpaw with our second MLB best bet of the day, even if it involves backing a team that is seven games under .500 (22-29) on the road this season. Texas took advantage of a soft spot in its schedule to generate a five-game winning streak coming into this matchup, as it swept the Chicago White Sox in four games at home. And while any team is better on paper than the historically bad White Sox, the Rangers are catching the Blue Jays at exactly the right time, as there is a lot of chatter in their front office about selling at the trade deadline and dealing the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and others.
We are especially high on the Rangers moneyline as Andrew Heaney has come on strong of late. Over his last 10 starts, Heaney has four wins, 56 strikeouts in 52 innings, and a 2.60 ERA. And since the calendar turned to June, his 3.53 FIP ranks up there with the best of starting pitchers, so he will be highly motivated in what could be his final start before the trade deadline, in case the Rangers themselves become mild sellers.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+100)
New York Yankees (-126) at Boston Red Sox (+108) | O/U 9.5 (-110/-110)
This season, Nestor Cortes has flashed Cy Young level ability in his home starts, but looks like nothing more than a middling No. 5 starter when he pitches on the road.
Cortes is 4-4 with a 2.48 ERA and a .207 OBA in 11 home starts, but is 0-5 with a 6.04 ERA and .301 OBA through 10 road starts. However, those numbers also reflect that he is coming off his worst start of the season, where he allowed a season-high three home runs and six runs total, while also matching his second-shortest outing of the year (4 1/3 innings pitched). Cortes also has a career 4.89 ERA against the Red Sox, which balloons to 6.19 at Fenway Park.
Meanwhile, Boston has won three of Brayan Bello’s previous four starts, and the only loss in that span was in extra innings to the World Series favorite Dodgers, a game in which Bello through a quality start and punched out seven batters in six innings. New York’s lineup is not nearly as deep as L.A.’s as the Yankees can’t seem to find consistent production from anyone other than Juan Soto or Aaron Judge of late. To that point, New York has the worst OPS from its cleanup spot in the batting order of any team in the majors.
Boston has won four of the six head-to-head meetings between these teams, and we expect another victory to start this three-game weekend series.
Boo birds are out in the Bronx as the Rays are teeing off on Nestor Cortes ????
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/tvIx5j1QHe
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) July 20, 2024
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+108)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
