Heisman Odds After Week 7: Michael Penix Jr. Surges; Caleb Williams Fades
by Brady Trettenero in College Football
Updated Oct 15, 2023 · 9:12 AM PDT
Sep 2, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass against the Boise State Broncos during the third quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY SportsThe Heisman odds experienced major shakeup following Week 7 of college footballWashington’s Michael Penix Jr. is the new favorite, while USC’s Caleb Williams faded to a longshotRead below for the updated Heisman odds following Week 7 of the NCAAF season
Week 7 of college football was always going to be a pivot week for the Heisman race, and it didn’t disappoint. Once the dust settled on the final games, the Heisman odds were looking quite different than they had for most of the season.
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is now the heavy favorite to win the college football MVP trophy after beating Oregon, while USC’s Caleb Williams has faded to a longshot after losing to Notre Dame.
The table below displays the updated Heisman odds from a variety of top-rated sportsbooks.
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Michael Penix Jr. Heisman Odds
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. continued his strong play in his biggest game of the season against Oregon. The result of his heroics? A clear first-place placement in the updated Heisman odds.
FanDuel adjusted Michael Penix Jr.’s Heisman odds from +215 to -140 after the Huskies pivot completed 22 of 37 passes for 302 yards and four touchdowns in a 36-33 victory.
MICHAEL. PENIX. JR.
What a throw for a second @UW_Football TD 🎯🎯🎯 pic.twitter.com/DdlSawETao
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 14, 2023
Penix Jr’s final stat line against Oregon might not jump off the page, but the senior delivered when it mattered most.
With UW trailing in the final minutes of the game, Penix 47 connected on a 35-year pass to Ja’Lynn Polk between two defenders, then hit Odunze on a back-shoulder throw at the goal line to give the Huskies the lead.
“You’re looking at the Heisman Trophy winner right there,” Odunze exclaimed after the game. It’s going to be hard to anyone to catch MPJ, who is second in the nation in total passing yards (1,999).
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Caleb Williams Heisman Odds
The famous old saying that one man’s loss is another man’s gain couldn’t be more applicable to the Week 7 Heisman odds. Michael Penix Jr. is the new heavy favorite for the Heisman odds in part because of the lackluster performance from USC QB Caleb Williams.
Williams had arguably the worst game of his collegiate career Saturday against Notre Dame, throwing three interceptions in a 40-28 victory. The 2022 Heisman winner finished the game with just 199 yards passing and a TD.
THREE first-half interceptions by Caleb Williams 😬 pic.twitter.com/dRTZ2kv3Gr
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 15, 2023
FnDuel Sportbook reacted dramatically to Williams’ poor performance, dropping the star pivot’s Heisman odds from +240 to +4000. It might seem a bit too drastic given his talent, but it’s important to remember Willmas had a Heisman moment in the Notre Dame game last season.
There has only been one repeat winner in the history of the Heisman trophy (Archie Griffin), and Williams is now unlikely to add his name to that exclusive list.
While repeating as the Heisman winner is almost near-impossible, Williams will have his shot at redemption when he plays a huge game against Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies on November 4th.
Other Week 7 Heisman Notes
The Heisman co-favorites heading into Week 7 were Penix Jr. and Williams, and the contradicting performances of the two players paints a clear picture of the Heisman race entering Week 8.
With Michael Penix Jr. continuing his dominance in a huge game and Williams struggling in his first real test, oddsmakers aren’t listing any player outside of MPJ with better odds than +1000 (9% implied chance).
One other player who was a top-five favorite entering Week 7 was Oregon’s Bo Nix. After Nix failed to lead his team to victory against Washington, FanDuel dropped his odds from +600 to +4000.
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