NFL Week 11 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

NFL Week 11 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

November 15, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

With NFL Week 11 kicking off tonight, here’s a stats-driven preview of three of this week’s biggest games.

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Houston Texans at Washington Redskins: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

This matchup features two division leaders, both of whom are somewhat of a surprise at this point in the season. The Texans are coming off a bye week and have won six straight games after starting the year 0-3. Deshaun Watson has taken time to recover from a torn ACL suffered last year, and the offense has been inconsistent to this point. Houston ranks just 16th in points per game (24.0) and have been inefficient in the running game (3.9 yard per carry) despite having the fourth highest rush play percentage in the league. After losing WR Will Fuller to injury for the year, the Texans acquired long-time Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas to pair with star WR DeAndre Hopkins, and the duo could cause problems for a Washington defense that’s allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt.

Alex Smith’s strengths have clearly rubbed off on Washington. He’s known for taking extra care of the ball, and the Redskins currently rank second best in turnover margin and giveaways, as Smith has thrown only three picks in nine games. His conservative play is often at the detriment of his offensive line’s sack stats, however. Smith is willing to take a sack rather than put the ball in harm’s way, and the banged up Washington line allowed three sacks to Tampa Bay last week. Houston’s defensive line presents a more formidable challenge, led by star DE J.J. Watt, and has also helped hold opposing quarterbacks to 6.6 yards per attempt (sixth best). Washington has leaned on the running game, led by RB Adrian Peterson, and has run the ball nearly 44% of the time. That trend will probably continue, to help take the pressure off of Smith.

Head to Head: The teams are tied 2-2 all-time, with the Texans taking the last two matchups. Houston won the most recent matchup 17-6 in 2014.

Point Spread on Thursday: Houston -3 (after opening at -2.5)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

The winner of Sunday night’s NFC North game between the Vikings and Bears will have a lot of momentum for the division title. At 5-3-1 Minnesota currently trails by a half game and enters the road game as underdogs. The Vikings are coming off a bye and won four of their previous five games before the week of rest. The team’s offense has been somewhat disappointing, ranking 14th with 24.6 points per game and remaining pass-happy with the addition of QB Kirk Cousins. Of course, that could change soon with RB Dalvin Cook now healthy, and he ran for 89 yards on only 10 carries vs. Detroit before the bye. The offensive line play is a big concern against DE Khalil Mack and the Bears defense. Cousins has already been sacked 24 times in nine games, and the Bears have the sixth best sack percentage in the NFL (8.2%) despite Mack missing some time. The Bears defense has also had some good fortune, ranking first in the league with 2.7 takeaways per game, currently first in picks and second in forced fumbles.

The Bears offense demolished Detroit last week, and were helped by the return of WR Allen Robinson, who finished with six receptions for 133 yards and two scores after missing two games. QB Mitchell Trubisky had arguably his best game of the year with 11.8 yards per attempt and a 148.6 Passer Rating. Head coach Matt Nagy has shown a keen ability to adjust his gameplan for the opponent, and Chicago could be focused on the short-passing game against a strong Vikings defensive line that has helped the team allow only 3.6 yards per rush attempt and are second in sack percentage (9.4%). Chicago’s running game has also failed to have success over the last two weeks without OT Kyle Long.

Head to Head: Minnesota has dominated the Bears recently, winning six of the last seven games, including the last three.

Point Spread on Thursday: Chicago -2.5 (after opening at -3)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

It’s the game we’ve all been waiting for, but in a different venue. ESPN has had the Chiefs vs. Rams matchup circled since Patrick Mahomes’ early-season breakout, but the league had to scramble and move the game from Mexico City to LA on Tuesday due to poor field conditions. The Chiefs are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season, a 26-14 home victory vs. Arizona. KC’s offensive line was shelled by the Cardinals front seven, led by LB Chandler Jones, but it has otherwise held up well this year with the seventh best sack percentage in the league. This game also will be a chance for LT Eric Fisher to bounce back against a Rams defense that gets most of its pressure from the interior with DTs Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid surely saw Seattle’s running game gash the Rams last week, taking over the title as the worst defense in regards to opponent yards per rush (5.2). RB Kareem Hunt could be in for a big game as he tries to get back on last year’s league-leading rushing yardage pace. The game will also feature a battle between former Chiefs CB Marcus Peters and the Chiefs combo of speedy WR Tyreek Hill and former Rams WR Sammy Watkins. Peters has really struggled this season while playing through a calf injury, while Hill has seemingly been unstoppable with 89.1 yards per game and nine scores in 10 contests. Watkins is expected to return from a foot injury that kept him out last week.

For all the talk of the Chiefs offense, the Rams have an argument as the best offense in this game. They lead the league with 9.1 yards per pass attempt, average more yards per game than KC, and rank just one spot behind in points per game (33.5). The offense runs through RB Todd Gurley, who has helped the Rams rank sixth in yards per carry (4.9) and gets plenty of work in the fifth most run-heavy offense in the league. The Chiefs have been nearly as bad at stopping the run as LA, allowing 5.1 yards per carry, so Gurley will certainly get his fair share of work. LA did suffer a huge loss last week when WR Cooper Kupp was lost for the year due to a torn ACL, so there will be more pressure on WRs Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods in support of QB Jared Goff. For all the Chiefs defensive issues, they did get OLB Justin Houston back from injury last week and pressured Arizona on more than 50% of dropbacks. The Rams can’t afford third-and-long situations against KC’s front seven, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Gurley substantially extended his league lead of 198 carries. The Vegas total as of Tuesday afternoon was 63.5, easily the highest of the season and also the highest NFL total in our database, dating back to 2003.

Head to Head: The Chiefs have won the last six matchups, all taking place when the Rams were cross-state rivals in St. Louis. The last matchup was a 34-7 win by the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in 2014.

Point Spread on Thursday: LA Rams -3.5 (after opening at -2.5)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Enjoy NFL Week 11, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 11 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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