NFL Week 14 Pick’em Pool Strategy: Five Picks You Must Consider

NFL Week 14 Pick’em Pool Strategy: Five Picks You Must Consider

December 6, 2018 – by Team Rankings

We’re back for NFL Week 14 with five picks that need to be on your radar screen if you want to win your NFL pick’em contest or confidence pool. For a quick primer on value-driven picking in football pools, see our article on NFL pick’em pool strategy.

Through last week, TeamRankings subscribers have already reported nearly 1,300 weekly prize wins in football pick’em pools, a win rate 150% higher than expected. And last season, 81% of subscribers won a season or weekly prize in a football pick’em contest. Check out our College Bowl Pick’em Picks and Football Pick’em Pool Picks.

Week 14 Value Picks For NFL Pick’em And Confidence Pools

The five NFL Week 14 picks listed below stand out based on their win odds and pick popularity. Deciding which way you want to go on these games should be top of mind when you make your NFL Week 14 pick decisions.

Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of these picks. The best picks for your specific football pick’em pool depend on multiple factors, such as the number of entries in your pool; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick’em Picks product ps out the best pick strategy for you.

Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Favorites At A Reasonable Price

New York Giants (at Washington)

The Giants are 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Washington Redskins. New York pulled off a big upset against the Bears last week, but things didn’t go as well for the Redskins. Washington QB Colt McCoy was injured in last week’s game against Philadelphia, and is done for the season. With original starting QB Alex Smith already out for the season, the Redskins were forced to rely on third-string journeyman QB Mark Sanchez. Given Washington’s quarterback issues, it’s not surprising that betting markets have the 4-8 Giants with almost 63% implied win odds in this game. At roughly 70% pick popularity nationwide, the Giants are not being significantly overrated by the public relative to their win odds, meaning that there are much better upset picks on the board this week than Washington.

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Oakland)

The Steelers are 11-point favorites on the road against Oakland in Week 14. Pittsburgh is coming off a 3-point loss to the Chargers in a game with playoff seeding implications, and looking to bounce back against the Raiders. As such big underdogs, the risk/reward profile for Oakland as an upset pick just doesn’t look great here, with Pittsburgh having Vegas-implied winning odds of nearly 84%. In comparison, the Chiefs are just about as popular a pick as the Steelers this week, but KC is significantly less likely to win its game. So it would be foolish to consider Oakland as an upset pick instead of a team like Baltimore.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Atlanta)

Green Bay is favored by five points at home against the Falcons this week. The Vegas-implied win odds for the Packers are about 67%, while 77% of the public is selecting them in pick’em pools. Although technically “overrated” like almost all favorites are, Green Bay’s pick popularity is lower than other favorites like the Texans and Titans, even though those other teams aren’t favored by as many points. The Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy after their Week 13 loss to Arizona, so the public may be more wary than usual to pick a favorite that is in the midst of a coaching transition.

Value Gambles

If you’re behind in your pick’em pool and need to make up some points, time is now running out. Although it’s a risky strategy, at this point you’re probably going to be best served by taking some risks on significantly underrated underdogs that still have a reasonable chance to win.

Chicago Bears (vs. LA Rams)

The Bears are 3-point underdogs at home against the Rams. After an overtime loss to the Giants last week, Chicago’s pick popularity is a paltry 15%. However, the betting markets have Chicago’s win odds at 41%, and our models are slightly more optimistic about their winning chances. While the Rams have the best record in the NFL, the Bears have a lot to play for as well, as they are currently leading the NFC North and have the third best record in the NFC. A nearly 27% difference in win odds and pick popularity is a quite large, making the Bears a very solid consideration for pick’em pools with weekly prize payouts, as well as for season prize pools if you are trailing in the standings.

New York Jets (at Buffalo)

The Jets are 3.5-point underdogs at Buffalo this week. The Bills and the Jets are among the weakest teams in the league, and both are looking to bounce back from 4-point losses last week. With Buffalo having home field, it’s understandable that the Bills are the favorites. But the Jets still have Vegas-implied win odds of around 38%, which is substantially higher than their nationwide pick popularity of only 13%. Picking the Jets is a significant gamble, but if they pull off the upset, the payoff should be significant in terms of gaining ground on your opponents.

If you want to take a little less risk than the Jets, the Vikings (at Seattle) also look like a good upset pick from a risk/reward standpoint. And if you really want to go for it, there’s a ton of value on San Francisco (home vs. Denver) — but the 49ers only have about a 35% chance to win.

Which Of These NFL Week 14 Picks Should You Make?

Maybe all of them, maybe just some of them. We’re not dodging the question — the reality is that it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.

We built our Football Pool Picks product to do all the number crunching for you, and p out when it makes the most sense for you to go with the favorite vs. the underdog. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it will customize Week 14 pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge.

Here’s how it works:

First, we use data from national pick’em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team.Then, we compare a team’s pick popularity to its win odds (or point spread cover odds, if you’re in a point spread pool) to determine if it’s being underrated or overrated by the public.Finally, we use algorithms to identify the exact set of picks each week that offers the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool’s size and rules.

The result? In our postseason survey last year, 81% of our subscribers reported winning a weekly or a season prize in a football pick’em contest, and over the long term our customers are winning pools at rates that blow away expectations.

Enjoy NFL Week 14, and if you’re in an pool or planning on betting some games, check out our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.

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